Geddy van Elburg

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Predicitve analysis and the Euro Championships

Is human behaviour predictable? Can we predict what is going to happen based on our analytics? One thing I learned along the years to be humble, as human behaviour can be very unpredictive in the long run. And even when you can predict what is going to happen, will people listen to you?

But sometimes you can predict what is going to happen. Most of the time these predictions are based on past time experiences. So what is going to happen in the coming weeks during the Soccer championships in Europe? What will it do towards the Dutch society? How does it influence businesses? And no, I’m not going to predict which team will win. Although, secretly I hope the Dutch to be champions off-course.

Based on previous experience I think when the Dutch team is playing there will be less activity on the internet in the Netherlands. I don’t have data to check this on other countries, but I think in the participating countries this will be pretty much the same. Lots of shops will be empty. Why? Is everybody loving soccer? Not everybody is loving soccer, but most of the people stil will be watching the game. You don’t want to miss the big thing. What if they are going to win?

Influence of mobile
What is different from previous events? Mobile. We do have more mobile devices. Then why should there be less internet activity during the games? You can still sit in front of your tv and connect on the same time. Connect with friends on social media, reacting on goals or missed opportunities. I ‘m curious how social is going to influence the behaviour of the fans this time.

Personally I think that during the game people will actually be watching. They will be concentrated on their TV screens. Not only in their homes, but in streets, bars etc, people will come together, dress up and watch the games. Social media will be especially active on the moments when the game is not attractive or nerve breaking, during half time. But I can’t image someone twittering when the ball is just in front of the goal to be be kicked in…or stopped.

Hard times for retail
The longer the team is in the competition, the more people will joining in and watch the matches. This means hard times for retailers: e-commerce and brick and mortar stores alike. Only when you are selling pizza’s and beer you’ll have a good summer ahead. Supermarkets will have golden times. ( And fanshops off-course)

Some of the retailers are coming up with all kind of events and actions to attract people who don’t like soccer. Ladies events, specials etc. But in the past I have seen empty shops during these events. And ladies, let’s be honest. Even if we don’t like soccer, it is still much fun to sit with the guys watching. Not only the match, but also the guys, totally dressed up. Ans so we also get sucked into the game when the tension is rising,even when we still don’t understand the off-side rule.

So I’m curious how this year is going to be. Is my prediction coming through? Or is the human race of soccer fans more unpredictable? I’ll be watching: the games, my guys, completely dressed up in orange and my web analytics tools.